There are quite simply some enormous games this weekend. No other way to put it.
As a brief overview we have a clash between the bottom two on Friday night, 6th vs 7th is first up on Saturday in a game that could knock one side out of the title equation. Then the small matter of Argentina’s second biggest derby (arguably), the Avellaneda Clasico. A fixture I was lucky enough to attend in the 2010 Apertura, it is a huge grudge match between the sky blue of Racing and the (filthy) Red of Independiente. Follow that with another relegation humdinger and another potential dream-ending match between 5th and 8th and I think that’s quite enough for one day!
Sunday seems much more straight-forward in honesty, and the big game of the day is first up. 3rd placed Olimpo against 4th place Estudiantes. A veritable ripsnorter. But I’ll deal with those in a later preview.
Chronologically then, let’s break this shit down.
Quilmes vs Newells is the bottom two facing off and to be honest I’m sure if they could both lose then they would. Quilmes are winless but at least are showing improvement by drawing instead of losing with 3 draws in their last 4. NOB (hehe) have been dreadful this and it’s difficult to see them winning this. With Quilmes robbed of a first win by a late, late show last week I think they could edge this but with both sides so insipid I’d err on the side of caution with a DNB Quilmes at around the 1.8 mark.
Where to start in this one? San Lorenzo have a great side as outlined in my last blog post. Their form stands up to scrutiny with the loss to Colon as the only major question mark but some great results against Boca, Olimpo and Estudiantes tend to confirm their credentials as a top outfit in this league. Lanus (again see below for details) are a side I like too but their away form is the reason they’re not right up in the top 4 as they’ve got some really disappointing results on the road. Price for San Lorenzo isn’t good enough for me though, up against a good side. Draw has value but I’d just let this one go and enjoy the game.
Racing Independiente merits it’s own article as a spectacle, and I’m writing that tomorrow, but from a betting perspective I’m not interested. I am a Racing fan so don’t like to bet on my own team anyway, but in a big derby where “form goes out the window” this is the best they could hope for, winless in 4 whilst their rivals are unbeaten in 5. Resurgent reds away at bottling blues. I will advise you that 3.2 is good value for Independiente considering the form, but no bet here for the blog.
Next up is another toughie, All Boys winless at home in 5 but Huracan are winless in their last 11 on the road. Another where both sides would lose if they could. On overall form, you favour el Globo despite their awful showings away from home and another stroke in their favour is the (joint) leading goalscorer in the Clausura, Javier Campora whose 6 goals represent half of Huracan’s total this season. The DNB Huracan at 2.6/2.7 is tempting but I’ll go out on a limb with the dbl chance at 1.75.
In Mendoza, two of the form sides meet as Godoy Cruz look to reign supreme over the only unbeaten side remaining in the league, Argentinos. The Tomba are an ok side at home, Argentinos are an ok side away. At first look, I fancied a draw. Under further inspection, I think the same. 3.25 is your price. Also worth a nibble on the unders, Argentinos have conceded just 3 in 9 games and none of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Rest of the weekend preview will be coming soon. Until then, boludo out.